James Howard Kunstler on the death of globalization

By Alex Singleton | 8 August 2005

What was James Howard Kunstler thinking of when he wrote an op-ed in the Guardian last week? His article, Globalisation is an anomaly and its time is running out, says that:

Today's transient global economic relations are a product of very special transient circumstances, namely relative world peace and absolutely reliable supplies of cheap energy. Subtract either of these elements from the equation and you will see globalisation evaporate so quickly it will suck the air out of your lungs. It is significant that none of the cheerleaders for globalisation takes this equation into account. In fact, the American power elite is sleepwalking into a crisis so severe that the blowback may put both major political parties out of business.

...the sunset of the current phase of globalisation seems dreadfully close to the horizon. The American public has enjoyed the fiesta, but the blue-light special orgy of easy motoring, limitless air-conditioning, and super-cheap products made by factory slaves far far away is about to close down. Globalisation is finished. The world is about to become a larger place again.

Of course, war could mess everything up. The First World War did that at the beginning of the 20th Century. And that's why it is so important we continue to press forward with globalization, for globalization's interconnectedness increases the cost of war and makes it less likely. It is essential, not just for humanitarian reasons but also for peace reasons, that the Middle East is integrated into the world economy.

But Kunstler is really just spouting schoolboy debating society nonsense when he talks about energy. Firstly, he seems to be saying that the halt to globalization that came with the First World War was somehow to do with oil. This strikes me as a rather unique view. Secondly, Kunstler has an unrealistic pessimism that running out of oil will smash the world economy. It's simply not true that we are going to run out of oil: we will stop using it as an energy source this century as the price of alternatives become cheaper than oil.

Take China. Its rapid growth requires vast amounts of energy. According to Wired magazine:

[To meet growing demand for energy] China's leaders are pursuing two strategies. They're turning to established nuke plant makers like AECL, Framatome, Mitsubishi, and Westinghouse, which supplied key technology for China's nine existing atomic power facilities. But they're also pursuing a second, more audacious course. Physicists and engineers at Beijing's Tsinghua University have made the first great leap forward in a quarter century, building a new nuclear power facility that promises to be a better way to harness the atom: a pebble-bed reactor. A reactor small enough to be assembled from mass-produced parts and cheap enough for customers without billion-dollar bank accounts. A reactor whose safety is a matter of physics, not operator skill or reinforced concrete. And, for a bona fide fairy-tale ending, the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow is labeled hydrogen.

Nuclear is just one option. It produces hydrogen that can be used to power cars. But there are other lots of other options like sticking solar panels on everyone's homes. With environmental concerns about global warming, the rich countries are going to be investing heavily in alternative sources. Call me an optimist, but I believe in the power of human ingenuity to deliver us good, clean and cheap options.

The truth about globalization: we've only just begun.